Market Pulse · Daily Scan
Daily Market Pulse
Aug 13, 2026 · sentiment/flow window ≈ 48h · Market hit record highs on cooling July PPI data; crude oil dragged energy.
Pre-marketnot publishedPost-market
TLDR;
Risk-on broad advance driven by tame wholesale inflation (July PPI unchanged MoM), pushing the S&P 500 to new record highs. Breadth: broad, with small-caps catching a bid alongside tech.A · Daily Pulse
What moved — and why
▲ Rising — dailycomposite
| # | Ticker | Move | Driver | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSCO | +8.2% | REPORTED: Q4 earnings beat with EPS of $1.22 vs $1.13 est; record revenue of $17.3B. Management cited accelerated pace of AI execution. ↔ deep-dive | 88 |
| 2 | MRNA | +6.8% | Highly volatile session with heavy volume, catching biotech risk-on flow following broader market optimism. | 75 |
| 3 | NVDA | +2.1% | Broad tech bid as the S&P 500 hits record highs following cool July PPI data, re-confirming AI capex flows in a lower-inflation regime. | 70 |
| 4 | HD | +1.5% | Housing and retail components caught a bid as the unchanged PPI print spurred hopes for easing input costs and lower forward mortgage rates. | 62 |
▼ Falling — dailycomposite
| # | Ticker | Move | Driver | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XOM | −2.3% | Energy complex weighed down significantly as global benchmark Brent crude oil fell 2.1% during the session. | 76 |
| 2 | CVX | −2.1% | Tracking lower crude prices amid global demand reassessments and an easing of geopolitical risk premiums in energy. | 74 |
| 3 | WMT | −1.8% | Pre-earnings jitters ahead of next week's report (Aug 20); market pricing in potential US consumer softness and decelerating store comps. | 60 |
B · One-Year Conviction
Asymmetric 12-month skew
Free sources only; estimate-revision/valuation rigor limited. Directional, not precise.
▲ Upside skew — 1yrconviction
| Ticker | Thesis | Key risk | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | Transition from legacy networking hardware to high-margin recurring software and AI-optimized infrastructure is bearing fruit, evidenced by Q4 record revenue. ↔ deep-dive | Enterprise IT budget cuts; AI networking market share loss to Arista | 85 |
| MU | Memory super-cycle continues; elevated EPS revisions. Secular tailwinds from HBM demand in AI clusters remains structurally intact. ↔ deep-dive | cyclical memory pricing; oversupply by 2027 | 82 |
| NVDA | AI-infrastructure capex remains the dominant secular driver for large-cap tech. Earnings multiples contracting slightly as growth continues to outpace price. | valuation; capex-cycle digestion | 78 |
▼ Downside skew — 1yrconviction
| Ticker | Thesis | Key risk | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | Decelerating US comparable store sales indicates consumer fatigue, compressing margins as deep promotions are required to defend volume in Q4. | Consumer resilience; eCommerce hyper-growth offsetting store weakness | 68 |
| XOM | Lower-for-longer crude pressures integrated-oil earnings as geopolitical risk premiums compress and global demand softens. | supply shock re-rates oil up | 66 |
| INTC | Foundry turnaround continues to struggle with structural execution risks; heavily reliant on unconfirmed policy and partner rumors. retail-heavy | Major foundry anchor customer announcement | 62 |
C · Options Heat
Where the premium is paying up
| Ticker | Signal | Read | Implication | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | iv_spike | elevated IV into Aug 20 earnings | High event premium pricing in a larger-than-average post-earnings move. | EOD aggregator; no live tape |
| CSCO | vol_oi | post-earnings vol expansion | Continued institutional repricing to the upside. | Inferred from daily volume spike |
D · Catalyst Calendar
Upcoming events
| Date | Event | Tickers | IV move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | End of week earnings wrap-up | Multiple Small/Mid Caps | normal |
| 2026-08-20 | Q2 Earnings (BMO) | WMT | high |
E · Trade Ideas
What the data implies
CSCOlong · track A/B
Rationale Record Q4 earnings and AI momentum validation breakout.
Invalidation Loss of post-earnings gap level.
Risk Broad tech correlation risk
XOMCVXshort · track A/B
Rationale Crude oil dropping under resistance levels, acting as a broad sector drag.
Invalidation Brent crude reclaiming $78 level.
Risk Highly sensitive to Middle East headline risk
Methodology & limitations
- no live options tape
- sentiment is crowd-positioning, not fact
- scores are heuristic, not backtested
Not financial advice. Educational/analytical only — generated by Gemini 3.1 Pro. Do your own diligence.